How DelayArbitrage Works
What is Delay Repay?
Delay Repay is the UK train industry's compensation scheme for delayed passengers. If your train is delayed by 15 minutes or more, you're entitled to compensation:
- 15-29 minutes late: 25% refund of the ticket price
- 30-59 minutes late: 50% refund of the ticket price
- 60+ minutes late: 100% refund of the ticket price
Most train companies automatically enroll passengers in Delay Repay, but you must actively claim your compensation through their websites.
The Effective Fare Concept
The "effective fare" is the ticket price minus expected delay compensation. Here's a simple example:
Historical delay rate (15+ min): 25%
Expected refund calculation:
- 10% chance of 15-29 min delay × 25% refund = £2.00
- 10% chance of 30-59 min delay × 50% refund = £4.00
- 5% chance of 60+ min delay × 100% refund = £4.00
Total expected refund: £10.00
Effective fare: £70.00
This means a £80 ticket on a frequently delayed route may actually cost you £70 on average.
How We Calculate Expected Savings
Our calculations are based on:
- Historical delay data: We analyze delay patterns by route, operator, time of day, and day of week
- Operator refund rates: Each train company has specific Delay Repay terms
- Claim success rates: Not all claims are approved; we factor this in
- Statistical confidence: Routes with more data points have higher confidence scores
We provide 95% confidence intervals so you can see the range of likely savings.
High Arbitrage Opportunities
We flag routes as "high arbitrage" when they meet these criteria:
- Expected refund of at least 10% of ticket price
- Delay probability of at least 15%
- Sample size of at least 50 journeys (for statistical reliability)
These routes offer the best value for passengers who actively claim compensation.
Tips for Maximizing Savings
- Always keep your ticket: You'll need it to make a claim
- Note your actual arrival time: Screenshot the live departure board or use the train company app
- Claim within 28 days: Most operators require claims within this window
- Use the operator's official form: Each train company has their own Delay Repay portal
- Consider travel times: Peak hours often have higher delay rates
- Check operator reliability: Some operators are more punctual than others on the same route
Important Disclaimer
The effective fares shown are statistical estimates based on historical data. Actual delays vary, and there's no guarantee your specific journey will be delayed. This tool is for informational purposes and should not be your sole basis for purchasing decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.